Is Joe Biden poised to surprise Bernie Sanders in a couple of big Super Tuesday states? Based on RealClearPolitics aggregation of polling in Texas and North Carolina, the answer is yes. I’m not predicting the outcome of those states’ primaries but I’m seeing some late changes in the polling. Let’s start with the Texas polling:
If Biden can pull off the upset in Texas, something that’s still very much in doubt, that changes everything delegate-wise. Even if Biden and Bloomberg don’t win but have strong showings, those are delegates that Bernie very much wants and needs. Then there’s North Carolina:
Notice the margin in the final polling. It looks like an outlier but I’m not certain of that. Remember Biden’s wide margin of victory in South Carolina. Biden doubled up Bernie’s support so I’m totally willing to accept this as legitimate. If it’s a wipeout in North Carolina and if Biden and Bloomberg grab a bunch of delegates in Texas, that mitigates a large portion of the California damage from Bernie.