2018 vs. 2020

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In 2018, Democrats were more energized than Republicans. Democrats might still be energized but I’m fairly certain that isn’t translating into positive result. Before going farther, I’ll stipulate that it’s always wise to be skeptical when viewing private polling. The party sharing private polling always wants to send a message. That being said, that doesn’t mean private polling is wrong. It simply means ‘proceed with caution’.

With that out of the way, however, it appears as though 2020 is shaping up to be a quite different year than 2018. Cindy Axne is part of the 2018 freshman class. She represents Iowa’s third district. According to the memo released with the polling, “Axne is surprisingly weak with her base; the named Republican challenger is earning 21% of registered Democrats.”

If that’s accurate, the DCCC should start with a strategy of ignoring this race because it’s essentially over. When a Democrat’s Republican opponent is drawing 1 in 5 Democrats away, that’s the Democrat’s doomsday. She won’t come back from that. This is the other statistic that’s ominous for Axne:

Axne’s image among undecided voters is 9% fav – 40% unfavorable

Having a net -31 favorable/unfavorable rating as an incumbent is death waiting to happen. Finally, there’s this:

Cindy Axne trails a named Republican candidate by six points, 48%-42% with 11% undecided.

Sayonara. Get out the jelly because Axne is toast.