False flag, or red flag

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"We no not want war. But if the Dogs of War are itching to get out in Iran, bring it on. We will make it quick, but maybe not that painless."

Okay. After listening to Fox News on the way home from more flower and plant shopping, I was a bit taken back. It seems our State Department has issued a "get out of Dodge" warning for any American (other than combat ready assets), who is living in Iraq. Why? It seems that intel (which we are not privy of), has exposed a threat of the gravest danger. In fact, the warning from the State Department stated, (my paraphrase), "leave or be kidnapped or killed". Wow! From Iran!
We are going to war! We have the USS Lincoln task force, a bomber wing composed of the ancient, yet effective B-52's, in the theater. With all that fire power, we are ready to kick butt and take names! Only one small problem however - the Brits say there is no threat. And the Democrats in the House agree with the Brits.
Not to bring this up again, but as a retired Naval Officer with a high level security clearance, when there is a bunch of smoke, there usually is some kind of fire. We (the public) knows about 10% (or less) of what is going on. The rest (if real), the government knows.
The Iranians believe this is a False Flag, put up by the Americans. My take - maybe, but doubtful. Too many leaky wickets to go through in our government to let this remain a ruse (or False Flag). My feeling - where there is a whole lot of smoke, there is at least some smoking timbers.
Was this some kind of trap to lure one of our prized carriers into an ambush? I know of some of the ship defenses for the carrier group, but not all of them. Even the ones I know of could be a good deterrent for anti-ship missiles, hyper sonic or not. But even if they landed a punch, knock out, or whatever - the return volley would put an end to the land once known as the Persian Empire.
Back to the question. False Flag or Red Flag. It is unlikely the United States would pull this kind of ruse on our allies and the world-wide media. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. My advice is to stay close to the news the next day or so. If there is smoke under those embers, they will ignite fast. If if is just a False Flag, it will soon fade into history.
What I would give to have my clearance back (if I had the right ticket). Do I think we are going to war with Iran? Not unless they are nuts. But we have seen once the Shah was deposed - they can be nuts.
We do not want war. But if the Dogs of War are itching to get out in Iran, bring it on. We will make it quick, but maybe not that painless.