Bye-bye big blue wave

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The big blue wave that never really existed is getting exposed, as I suspected it would, as a regional wave. Though I never had polling proof of this theory, I thought that much of the wave potential and enthusiasm gap was limited to bi-coastal regions. Lately, though, there’s some proof that that’s the case. Ed Morrissey highlights this ‘phenomenon’ in this post:

This mirrors a poll last week from the Washington Post and ABC News. Their poll put Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, but Republicans at +1 in the 66 battleground districts, also a big swing from their earlier polling. That suggests that Democratic enthusiasm intensified in districts where they were already safe, and that Republican enthusiasm has changed the election where the House majority will be determined.

This doesn’t mean that Republicans won’t lose seats in the House. I’m thinking, though, that it means their losses in the House will be significantly smaller than predicted.

In sum:

1) D’s +9 in national generic ballot
2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied
3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency
4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll history

Those do not sound like the components of a “blue wave.” https://t.co/CZMK6qSeOY

This close to an election, it’s smarter to pay attention to where the alphabets (DCCC, NRCC, etc.) are putting money into or pulling money out of than to pay attention to polls. The fact that the DCCC pulled its money out of MN-8 indicates that Democrats have given up on that race.

Last spring, Democrats tried convincing people that there truly was a blue wave coming by announcing that they were expanding their map from 40+ seats to 60+ seats. I wasn’t convinced of the wave because of that. Democrats expanding the map didn’t prove that voters bought into the blue wave. As it turns out, more voters each week are picking accomplishments over attacks.