Jobs report predictions

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If President Trump is looking for good news, this article should help put a smile on his face. Let’s dig into what the experts are predicting for this morning’s jobs report.

The article starts by saying “Economists expect job growth of 310,000 in October, a rebound after the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in a 33,000 decline in September.” If 310,000 jobs are created in October, President Trump’s critics will be crushed. President Trump will have notched another victory that will improve his job approval rating, too. Most importantly, 310,000 new jobs would be welcome news to people after 8 years of lackluster economic growth.

President Trump still has to wait for the official report to be published but getting anywhere close to that would be a victory. Seth Carpenter, the chief U.S. economist at UBS, said “Our forecast is for 325,000. It’s going to be a big number. You’re going to get a kind of soft average for those two months.”

Thus far, we’ve had 2 straight quarters of 3% economic growth. The jobs reports have been decent, not spectacular. If these predictions are right, though, then that’s just another sign that this economy is primed to take a big step forward. If that happens, the Trump bandwagon will get a lot fuller. It’ll certainly give him the type of momentum that’s needed to push through tax reform.

Check back later to find out what the report actually said.

  1. Payrolls rose 261k (est. 313k) after 18k advance; revisions added 90k to Aug.-Sept. figures, including turning Sept. drop into a gain
  2. Unemployment rate, derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, fell to 4.1% (est. 4.2%) from 4.2%

Those aren’t fantastic jobs numbers but the unemployment rate is pretty eye-catching.