Ignore conventional wisdom on PPACA

Jonah Goldberg’s op-ed is the most well-thought-out argument for Republicans to trust their instincts about the PPACA. Here’s a healthy dose of Jonah’s thinking on the matter:

Republicans should have a little more confidence in their own arguments. If you believe that ObamaCare can’t work, you should expect that it won’t.

I haven’t found a single Republican, even amongst the RINOs, that thinks the PPACA will work. The number of people that’ll get hooked on their premium support payments isn’t equal to the number of people who’ll get upset about high premiums.

Make no mistake, either, about whether people will feel the pain from higher premiums. Nearly two-thirds of the states have refused to create state-run exchanges. People living in states that don’t run their exchanges aren’t eligible for federal premium support. They’ll be the hardest hit with premium increases.

When Sen. Lee and Sen. Cruz say that this might be the last opportunity to defund the PPACA, there’s no doubt that they sincerely believe that. I simply disagree with their opinion. Here’s why:

Once government expands, goes the theory, reversing that expansion is nearly impossible. Liberals have their own version. They point out that once Americans get an entitlement, Social Security, Medicare, etc., they never want to lose it. They hope that if they can just get Americans hooked on the goodies in ObamaCare, they’ll overlook all the flaws.

There’s a lot of truth here, to be sure. But it’s not an iron law either. Sometimes, bad laws get fixed. It happened with Medicare in 1989 and welfare reform in 1995. Many of the boneheaded laws of the early New Deal were scrapped as well.

Thinking that people will “overlook the flaws” is like believing unicorns and rainbows will suddenly appear. Anything’s possible but it isn’t likely.

Rather than shutting down government, Republicans should get out of the way and let America see that there’s a slow-motion trainwreck happening right before their eyes and that trainwreck is called the PPACA. Jonah’s final point might be the most powerful:

Forcing a debt crisis or government shutdown won’t kill ObamaCare, but it will give Democrats a lifeline heading into the 2014 elections, which could have the perverse effect of delaying the day Republicans have the political clout to actually succeed in repealing this unworkable and unpopular law.

I totally agree. I’d rather pick fights I can win rather than picking fights that feel good momentarily.

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