Apparently we're supposed to be surprised by the news:

The U.S. economy posted a stunning drop of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, defying expectations for slow growth and possibly providing incentive for more Federal Reserve stimulus.

The economy shrank from October through December for the first time since the recession ended, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports and sluggish growth in company stockpiles.

 

Oh, goody -- more Fed stimulus! Oh, and damn that George W. Bush. If he would only stop causing sluggish growth in company stockpiles, all would be better.

People aren't feeling very good about things at all right now. Everyone has noticed that the payroll tax holiday is over and they have less money in their paychecks. Meanwhile, the price for a gallon of gas has gone up over $0.60 here in the Twin Cities in the last three weeks.

It's a gas

If you study the historical pattern, a lot of people were hoping that this year would be like 1997, when things got rolling. There's better reason to think we're going to have a year more like 1937. It will all be quite stunning and unexpected.

Cross-posted and comments welcome at Mr. Dilettante's Neighborhood.