True North

Jamie Allman talked with Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty this morning on his St. Louis talk radio show and got him to endorse McCain publicly. That doesn’t exactly come as a shock; Pawlenty was one of the first major political figures in the country to endorse McCain for President in 2007, and stuck with McCain through the near-collapse of his campaign. Nor is Pawlenty alone in making a pitch for McCain. Sarah Palin, a Tea Party favorite, drew some ire for her endorsement of McCain over J. D. Hayworth, who has assiduously courted the Tea Party movement:

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Based on Gov. Crist's failing poll numbers and the fact that key staffers are leaving Crist's campaign, I'm betting that it's just a matte of time before Gov. Crist's campaign implodes. Here's the latest news from the Crist campaign:

In the latest sign of turbulence for Charlie Crist's wounded U.S. Senate bid, key staffers are starting to leave the campaign.

Political director Pablo Diaz, one of the first two staff members hired for the Senate campaign, is departing at the end of the month for "a new opportunity." Sean Doughtie, a well-regarded new media consultant who had worked with Crist for years, stopped working for the campaign at the end of January.

"The campaign was going in a different direction," said Doughtie.

It was almost 2 months ago that I first heard the opposing rumors about Charlie Crist. One set of rumors said that he'd drop out rather than risk humiliating defeat. The other rumor was that he'd switch parties and run as a Democrat. At that point, I didn't think either rumor was credible. Based on Scott Rasmussen's most recent polling, though, I'm now thinking that Crist might well drop out:

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio continues to lengthen his lead over Governor Charlie Crist in the contest for Florida's Republican Senate nomination.

It's become fashionable lately to wonder if the Republicans will retake the Senate this fall.  I'll admit it's not without some cause, after all national Democrats seem to be doing everything they can to stack the deck against themselves.  Republicans keep making gains and they've been less incompetent that usual lately.  That's encouraging.  And Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts was a shot across the bow to every Democrat up for election, every seat is in play now.

However, not all seats are created equal.  Just because Brown and his pickup truck won in Massachusetts, doesn't mean that will translate across the country.  For sure Republicans are likely to make some VERY significant gains in the Senate, but it's hard to imagine a scenario that involves the takeover of the Senate.  I see the Republicans getting to 49, maybe 50 seats, but after that the spigot runs dry.  We'll go through them state-by-state.  See if you can figure out where the Republicans are going to get that magical 51st seat.