True North

Prior to the 2006 midterms, Karl Rove highlighted the plan to maintain control of Congress. The Architect said that 2006 would be about presenting the electorate a choice between the Democrats and congressional Republicans. As they say, the rest is history.

That's what makes me curious why David Plouffe would want to turn this year's midterms into a choice election:

Ask David Plouffe how Democrats can recover from their electoral setbacks over the past few months and he has a simple answer: Republicans.

"Politics is a comparative exercise," Plouffe, who managed Barack Obama's presidential campaign, told the Fix in his first extended interview since he took on a broadened political role for the White House in advance of the midterm elections. "This isn't just a referendum on Democrats or our party. It's a choice."

That choice was made explicit far too late in last month's special Senate election in Massachusetts between then-state Sen. Scott Brown (R) and state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), Plouffe noted. "Everyone would agree that the definition of Brown should have happened a lot sooner and a lot more clearly," he said.

In my opinion, that's a foolish strategy, especially in light of this polling:

Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on nine out of 10 key issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

But the latest national survey finds that the two major political parties are much closer this month on the top issue of the economy. Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust the GOP more on economic issues, while 42% trust Democrats more. Another 12% are undecided. Last month, Republicans held an 11-point edge on the issue and had a 12-point lead in November.

On health care, Republicans are trusted more than Democrats by 49-37 percent, a 12 point margin. Republicans lead Democrats by a 50-34 percent on the issue of taxes, which will grow in importance as the expiration date of the Bush tax cuts draws near.

This statistic should scare Democrats the most: Likely voters trust Republicans by a 45-35 percent margin ON SOCIAL SECURITY!!!

What is clear, however, is that Plouffe has been assigned to apply his meticulous, detail-oriented approach to competitive races across the country, ensuring that the White House and the DNC do everything they can to sniff out problems and offer solutions, and not be surprised by another Scott Brown.

The DNC better raise alot of money quickly because Mr. Plouffe will need lots of staff this year. There's gonna be alot of races needing Mr. Plouffe's attention this summer.

Plouffe, aware of the challenges for Democrats, said that if people know both the "positive" Democratic story and the "comparative" message against Republicans, the predictions of political Armageddon will be far short of the reality this fall.

"The wisest thing to do is prepare for a very tough election," Plouffe advised members of his party. "But in this kind of turbulent electoral environment, I don't think any of us should presume an electoral outcome."

Here's what Dick Morris said on Hannity Monday night:

This weekend, I'm doing the final revisions on my new book "2010: Take Back America, a Battle Plan" and I finished writing the section on the House races last month. And now they sent me the galleys for me to correct. And I listed 35 possible tight races. I went through it again, looking at the modern polling and we're up to 60 tight races. Like Kirk in Illinois was 6 points behind and now he's 6 points ahead. It's unbelievable the changes.

It's important that we remember that GOP candidate recruitment is still a work in progress. As more polling shows that the Democrats are in trouble, the easier candidate recruitment gets for Kevin McCarthy and John Cornyn. If things keep improving for Republicans but at a slower pace, Plouffe will have 75 competitive races to deal with on a daily basis.

Recently, Michael Barone, the man who's forgotten more demographic information in every House district in America than I can imagine accumulating, said this in the aftermath of Scott Brown's improbable victory in Massachusetts:

Anyway, there's a pattern here: Coakley carries districts where Obama got 65% or more of the vote and runs essentially even in the district where he got 64%, and Scott Brown runs ahead in districts where Obama got less than 64% of the vote.

Let's extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103.

Right now, Democrats have north of 250 House members. Assuming that Barone's pontifications are accurate, that means there are approximately 150 Democrat seats that are in play. While I'm skeptical of that high of a total, I'mcertain that there are far more seats in play than the Democrats are letting on. I'm partially basing my opinion on this information:

Some troubling news for Sen. Evan Bayh, D-IN? Maybe. A poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows that the two-term senator may be vulnerable to a challenge, presumably from former senator Dan Coats (R-Ind.), largely because of voter dissatisfaction with the Democratic health-care legislation and the flight of independents from the Democratic Party.

The survey, which was conducted by GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway, showed that six in 10 Indiana voters oppose the health-care plan and 32 percent support it. And the opposition to the legislation is passionate, 48 percent said they strongly opposed the measure passed by the Senate.

Independents, who voted heavily for Obama and helped him shock the political world by carrying the Hoosier State in 2008, have swung in the opposite direction in the Conway poll; 40 percent said they would vote for an unnamed Republican candidate for office and 19 percent chose an unnamed Democrat.

Sen. Bayh has always touted himself as a centrist. That isn't possible anymore because after voting for President Obama's failed stimulus bill and for Pelosicare. Saying that you're a fiscal hawk after voting for a pork-filled stimulus bill that was about paying off the Democrats' political allies and voting for a huge new entitlement program isn't the way to maintain credibility as the taxpayers' watchdog.

In normal years, Sen. Bayh's seat wouldn't be on the radar. Now, his seat is definitely in play. That's the bad news. The worst news is that his isn't the only seat where an established Democrat is in trouble. Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray are in trouble, too, to varying degress.

Whatever happens this fall, Mr. Plouffe will work his behind off trying to stave off a disaster.

Comments welcome at LFR.