True North

Lately, there's been a slew of articles about the CD-6 race ostensibly between incumbent Michele Bachmann and challenger Tarryl Clark. One article talks about this being a proxy war between Norm Coleman and Al Franken. Another highlights the fact that Al Franken is supporting Tarryl.

While people are writing about those aspects of the race, I tend to think that the more telling tale is that Michele is a threat to Pelosi's Democrats, persistently hounding them for their votes:

Conservative site WorldNetDaily is running a campaign to send members of Congress a "pink slip" warning that if they vote for "government health care," "cap and trade," "hate crimes," or "any more spending," their "real pink slip will be issued in the next election." Since September, WorldNetDaily has offered to send pink slips to all 535 members of Congress on behalf of readers for a price of $29.95.

The organizers of the campaign held a press conference on Tuesday to announce that it had sent out 5 million pink slips. The press conference, held on Capitol Hill, was attended by Republican politicians including Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), Steve King (R-Iowa) and Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).

"This is part of the reason...why we haven't seen this legislation on health care come through earlier," said Bachmann, who received the pink slips along with all other congressmen. "People are shocked that 5 million people have taken the time and the money...to send these pink slips."

The DCCC will target Michele this year...again. They'll do it more because they'd love to get rid of Michele's ability to attract attention to their most controversial legislation. That's easier said than done.

Even if the Democrats bring their A game, it's still unlikely they'll defeat Michele. Before we get started with the makeup of the Sixth District, it's important that we highlight that this election cycle favors Republicans. The Agenda Media's pundits will try selling the fact that that's mostly because that's the historical trend in a new president's first midterm.

While that's certainly true, the reality is that there's more at work than just midtermitis. Earlier this month, suburban and independent voters in New Jersey and Virginia threw the Democrats overboard, reversing the trend from 2006 and 2008. Most of these voters abandoned Democrats because they're seeing how fiscally irresponsible the Democrats have been this term. In the House, especially, Democrats have voted for the failed stimulus bill, a job-killing cap-and-trade bill and the health care monstrosity in addition to passing President Obama's overbloated budget.

After plugging Tarryl's record of voting for job-killing tax increases, her unwillingness to find savings in the budget and her record of voting for big spending increases into this equation, you've got a an uphill climb to make in the Sixth District. Factor in Tarryl's staunchly pro-choice history and the Sixth District just isn't a good fit for Tarryl.

One line of attack Michele's detractors will employ is to remind people of controversial things Michele has said. The defense against that is reminding people that Michele voted against Cap-And-Trade, against the irresponsible Pelosicare and the failed stimulus bill while voting to increase domestic energy production, including increased nuclear energy production.

Another 'outside' factor weighing into this fight, albeit on the periphery, is the incompetence of the Obama administration. Saying that Recovery.gov is a laughingstock is understatement. While Recovery.gov is a laughingstock, it wouldn't exist without the Democrats' failed stimulus bill. Adding to the Democrats' image of incompetence is the administration's announcement about new restrictive guidelines on mammograms.

Factor these things together and it's looking like Michele will finally be running with the wind at her back. This undoubtedly will be a race to watch. That doesn't mean it'll be as tight a race as some pundits think it will be.

Comments welcome at LFR.