True North

Simple truism of the American mainstream media; the faintest move to the left will be portrayed as a major tectonic change in American politics (while any drift to the right will be regarded as an anomaly or pathology).

One classic example; when Ed Schultz “went national” four years ago, he had six stations; Minneapolis, Fargo, and a bunch of small rural towns.  Joe Soucheray had a bigger network at that time.  And yet Schultz got a raving full-bore-hype showcase on the Today show, complete with Katie Couric cooing “is he the left’s answer to Rush Limbaugh?”.

Six stations.

Of course, that’s as nothing compared to the cacaphony any time any “traditionally Republican” group sheds any demographic dandruff.

Which brings us to this headline:  “Evangelicals Flee the GOP“.   That’d be pretty serious news, if were true…:

Michael Dudley is the son of a preacher man.

He’s a born-again Christian with two family members in the military. He grew up in the Bible Belt, where almost everyone he knew was Republican. But this fall, he’s breaking a handful of stereotypes: He plans to vote for Democrat Barack Obama.

“I think a lot of Christians are having trouble getting behind everything the Republicans stand for,” said Dudley, 20, a sophomore at Seattle Pacific University.

Dudley’s disenchantment with the GOP isn’t unique among young, devoutly Christian voters.

Er, I’m sure it’s not - inasmuch as the GOP does, always has, and always will poll weakest among “the young”; Churchill’s dictum (”a man who’s not a liberal at 20 has no heart; a man who’s not a conservative at 40 has no brain”) is as true now as ever.  Whether being “an evange
Still - could it be true?  Could young evangelicals be fleeling the GOP?

What is the nature of this catastrophic exodus? (I add emphasis):

According to a September 2007 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 15 percent of white evangelicals between 18 and 29, a group traditionally a shoo-in for the GOP, say they no longer identify with the Republican Party.

“Traditionally a shoo-in?”

Since when?

If 15 percent of that group “don’t identify with the GOP” now?  Fine - what was that number in 2004?  2000?  1996?

We don’t know - because, I suspect, the answer would show what a non-story this is.

Or would, if it needed to - since, like most of those “[name your group] are deserting the GOP’ stories, further reading shows there’s really no there there.

But, Howard Dean, don’t count your chickens quite yet. College-age and 20-something Christians may be leaving the GOP, but only 5 percent of young evangelicals have joined the Democrats, according to the Pew survey. The other 10 percent are wandering the political wilderness, somewhere between “independent” and “unaffiliated.”

So in other words, out out of six evangelicals in an age group that society-wide traditionally doesn’t vote GOP, claim to be falling out with the party - and of them, only one in three is actually jumping to the Tics?

The real news would seem to be “Among Young Evanglicals, the GOP has a 17-1 (85%05%) Majority”. 

I mean, wouldn’t it?

Cross-posted and comments welcome at Shot In The Dark.