True North

MinnPost's Doug Grow thinks that the DFL were the big winners this session. I'd beg to differ. First, let's hear Grow's reasoning for that opinion:

Speaker of the House Margaret Kelliher was the biggest winner of all, coming out of this session winning raves from Republicans and Democrats alike. Without ever seeming to raise her voice, she managed to outmaneuver Gov. Tim Pawlenty throughout the session.

She what? Her only big victory was the Transportation Bill. If that's Grow's example of outmaneuvering Gov. Pawlenty, then he's delusional. Let's look at it from another standpoint.

Before the session started, the DFL was publicly pushing hard for single-payer health care reform. When the dust settled, they voted for giving tax credits to help uninsured buy private health insurance. It's amazing how Speaker Kelliher started with single-payer and finished with tax credits for private health insurance. That's some job of outmaneuvering Gov. Pawlenty and the GOP.

To make matters even juicier for DFLers, the Republicans appear to be in disarray. Eight of their house members have announced they're quitting, while only four DFLers are retiring. That means a chance of grabbing more open seats as DFLers dream of gaining enough seats to have a veto-proof majority in the House as well as the Senate.

It's true that Republicans have to defend a group of open seats but the DFL has to pray that nobody noticed that their most vulnerable freshmen voted for the biggest, most unpopular tax increases in Minnesota history. They won't get away with that because we're breaking out the biggest megaphones in the state to remind people of those votes.

It's obvious that Grow thinks that increasing taxes when the economy is soft will appeal to suburban and exurban voters. Grow doesn't even deal with the Metro DFLers' throwing vulnerable freshmen under the bus when they voted to extend the metro sales tax to rural Minnesota. Those freshmen were told that they had to vote with their metro colleagues. How do you think it'll play with rural voters to pay a sales tax so that Minneapolis and St. Paul can pay for their pet projects? I'm not betting it'll sit well with those voters.

Grow must also be thinking that the DFL's majority was won by big margins. The number of seats gained was significant but the margin of victory was microscopic in a number of races. Paul Gardner defeated Phil Krinkie by 51 votes. Shelley Madore won by 195 votes, Sandy Masin won by 57 votes, Kim Norton by 99 votes, David Bly by 60 votes, Ken Tschumper won by 52 votes. In total, the 18 closest races won by DFL candidates were won by 7,246 votes, an average of 403 votes. Those weren't all won by challengers either. Julie Bunn, for instance, won by 244 votes in a totally toxic year for Republicans. Sandy Wollschlager won by 496 votes. They're both being targeted for their votes on the Transportation Bill.

Let's dig into the Transportation Bill's impact on these races. While it's true that these candidates will likely be able to justify increasing the gas tax, that's as far as it goes. Don't bet that suburban, exurban and rural voters to buy into raising license and registration fees and the other taxes included in this bill.

And there's more. While DFLers have moved to the middle, broadening their base, Republicans may be facing another purge from the right.

When did this supposed move to the middle happen? Was it when they were forced into abandoning their property tax relief bill? Or was it after Gov. Pawlenty vetoed their original health care reform bill?

Next Grow whines about Republicans endorsing more conservatives:

Like Tingelstad, Rep. Neil Peterson, a Republican from Bloomington, has felt the wrath of his party for joining the Override Six. He was not endorsed at his district convention, meaning he'll have to run against a more pure, endorsed candidate in a September primary.

"The leadership in the party has become very conservative," said Peterson. "It's caused quite a rift. Next week, they have a (district party) monthly meeting that we've always been invited to to discuss how the session went. This year, I'm not invited. Neither is Ron Erhardt. They don't even want to hear from us."

Erhardt, from Edina, is another of the Override Six. He's been representing his moderate district for 18 years but now is pondering whether to try to continue his job by running in the Republican primary or as an independent.

"I'm not sure if this is Ron Paul people or what," said Peterson. "I just know I don't pass their test."

Here's what Jan Schneider said about Neil Peterson and about her candidacy:

My opponent is probably well known to most of you - Rep. Neil Peterson. And between now and September, you'll likely hear that the opposition to Rep. Peterson is based solely on his transportation vote - as is my candidacy. But those of us who live in 41B known the fuller picture. For four years, Rep. Peterson has put his voice and his vote to such projects as the Twins Stadium, a clothing sales tax, the Dream Act and, originally, in opposition to eminent domain reform. In 2007 alone, according to the Journal of the Minnesota House of Representatives, Rep. Peterson voted with the DFL 52.1% Surprisingly, I agree with some of Rep. Peterson's defenders - one vote shouldn't define a record.

But I'm not running simply to "oppose" Rep. Peterson anymore than I'm running because of one vote or issue. For 25 years, I've operated my own small business as an executive business consultant, working with small companies as well those listed among the Fortune 500. I've made my career out of striving for greater efficiency and effectiveness and it has long aggravated as many of our legislators, Democrat and Republican, have chosen the path of least resistance by "striving" for more of the same.

It isn't automatically a disgrace to vote with Democrats from time to time. When you vote with them over half the time, especially when their bills are for major tax increases and unsustainable spending increases and for more government control, then it's time to eliminate the problem.

I'd further posit that it's a good thing to elect someone with small business experience rather than electing who won't for conservative principles. Here's how Grow finishes his post:

As November approaches, Republicans are trying to understand who they are. Meantime, DFLers are bouncing around the state more robust, and unifed, than they've been in a quarter century.

There isn't any doubt that DFL legislators are unified. Unfortunately for them, that isn't the only thing that matters in elections. Over the past 2 years, they've voted for some of the biggest tax increases in state history. They voted for an irresponsible and unsustainable spending increase of almost 18 percent in 2007, only to have that budget vetoed by Gov. Pawlenty and sustained by the House GOP caucus.

Every poll I've seen, whether it's a national or statewide poll, says that tax increases are extremely unpopular this year. One other thing that the DFL will have to deal with is their voting record vs. what they ran on in 2006. Back then, they ran as "a fiscally moderate caucus." Now they've got to defend their liberal voting records.

Let's see how big a bounce the DFL has in their step once they've been cursed at for raising people's taxes.

Comments welcome at LFR.