True North

Earlier this morning, I got an email in my inbox inviting me to become a Facebook fan of Pat Anderson for State Auditor. That kinda surprised me since I didn't know that she'd announced she was dropping her gubernatorial campaign. Now that Pat's announced she's running for her old job under significantly different circumstances, it's worth taking a look at Election 2010 in Minnesota. Let's start by looking at the impact her announcement will have on the gubernatorial race.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm supporting Tom Emmer. Pat's departure will likely strngthen Tom's chances. I didn't arrive at that opinion because I'm supporting him. Rather, it's my opinion because it's been a well-known fact that Pat and Tom were fighting over many of the same people. Both openly courted fiscal conservatives because both are fiscal conservatives.

Pat's getting out likely hurts Marty Seifert, though it'd be a stretch to call it a death blow. It likely hurts Marty because having Pat out of the race means that Tom will collect the lion's share of the fiscal conservatives.

At this point, I can't imagine Pat not getting the GOP endorsement for State Auditor. It's a job she's had before. She was very good at it. She got swamped in the 2006 disaster when a DFL wave swept the state. The question now is whether a similar wave will swamp Rebecca Otto, who formally announced that she's seeking re-election:

State Auditor Rebecca Otto, May Township, formally announced her re-election bid today (Monday, Jan. 11), speaking of innovation in government.

"I'm not playing politics. I'm all about good government," said Otto to supporters. "And I will not stop," she said.

Any DFL candidate that says they don't play politics is really saying that the politics they play aren't openly political. That said, it'll be interesting to see how this race shapes up. In the end, I think it tilts in Pat Anderson's direction because she made great inroads with fiscal conservatives.

I've mentioned fiscal conservatives alot in connection with Pat because it's important to note that fiscal conservatives, whether they've supported Dr. Ron Paul or not, are the most energized activists. In every election that I've ever paid attention to, the candidate with the most go-getters campaign volunteers wins. If Pat wins, which I think is quite possible, it's because her volunteers will have run through walls for her.

The other thing Pat has going for her is that her name recognition is higher than Rebecca Otto's. Pat's name recognition was earned by showing up at the gubernatorial debates. For instance, she made a positive impression at the bipartisan gubernatorial forum in St. Cloud. (I'd be surprised if the conservatives there that night didn't give her a high grade that night.)

From an activist's perspective, I'm glad to hear Pat didn't adopt a I'm-taking-my-ball-and-going-home attitude. Instead, she's jumping into what appears to be a winnable race. This just strengthens the MNGOP ticket in 2010.

Comments welcome at LFR.

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