Several readers have requested a new look at the Senate and if the GOP has a chance of taking it. Fair enough, quite a few races have changed, so let's take another look shall we?
To start, let's summarize. Republicans need to get to 51, right now they are at 41. The last few times I took a look at the Senate I came up with a final total of 49, 48 and 48, in that chronological order. It's become increasingly popular for pundits to declare the Senate is flipping, can Republicans get to 51? One way to find out.
Today the Dayton campaign released a 1970 commencement program from Charles Sumner Junior High listing Mark Dayton among the teachers and advisers of the graduating class. As much as I appreciated that the school read from Scripture, recited the Pledge, and sang the National Anthem—it still doesn’t confirm the dates of his employment (month/year), who his employer was (apparently Teacher’s Inc.), or his status (paid/stipend/volunteer) and position within the Charles Sumner Junior H.S. (Dayton said he was a Student Teacher).
Why is it important to get details on this time of Mark Dayton’s life? It was forty years ago! Who cares! It was a blip on the screen of life. Well, maybe for some people. But not for Senator Dayton’s generation, 1969-1971 was not a carefree time. And it’s not unusual for the men of that era who are running for political office to be hounded for details about that particular “blip” of time.
Senator Dayton, MNGOP, you asked for 'em, you got 'em. Actually I'm waiting until tomorrow morning to post the new designs for MNGOP tracker shirts. If you're not familiar with the story, have a look here.
Here's tonight's teaser. Many more to come tomorrow morning.
Almost eighty years ago, the Great Plains – where I was born, a generation later – were pummeled by back-to-back catastrophes. The first one, the Great Depression, was manmade – a deflating credit bubble whose effects were exacerbated by government intervention in trade (the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which indirectly crippled farm exports) and the market (the entire New Deal, whose price controls had unintended consequences that rippled through ag markets for generations, as well as land management practices that exacerbated the later Dust Bowl) that kept the Depression going long after it would have healed itself after 1929.
The second was natural – an epic drought. Either would have been bad enough – and either would have been bearable on its own. Together, the two sets of circumstances – an unavoidable natural disaster and an avoidable man-made one – combined to create an epic human cataclysm, perhaps the worst in American history other than the Civil War.
Let’s make no mistake about this; I’m predicting Tom Emmer is going to win this fall’s gubernatorial race. It’s going to be tight – 3-4 points, very likely less – but he’s going to win. On the chance – heaven forefend – that he doesn’t? In the wake of Jesse Ventura and Al Franken, Minnesota will have proven itself a fundamentally un-serious people for all time to come.
But I have more faith in the people of this state than that.
Still, there’ve been some of my fellow Republicans – that is to say, Republicans, as opposed to conservatives – cracking under the pressure of the campaign. I’ve talked with a few otherwise-stalwart GOPers who aren’t sure that Emmer can pull this off.
I am sure he can and will. But let’s break it down.
Candidates must be reminded that outside direct voter contact and paid advertisements, voters receive an abundance of information from the media. If conservative candidates want voters to hear their message they shouldn’t write off the media or take them for granted. Instead, they must develop an earned media strategy for their campaign. Below are five quick points to properly communicate your message with the media.
1.) Identify the reporters covering your race. There are a variety of media lists available to every campaign. Locate these lists and find out who will be covering your race. In addition, do your research. Find out as much information as you can about the reporters that you have identified. Read through past articles; talk with like-minded individuals that have run for office in your community.
I just got a press release form Mark Drake of the MNGOP. It's an open letter asking for submissisons for designs of the Mark Dayton requested MNGOP tracker shirts. I have done a few hundred shirts in my time, sounds like fun. Better check over the details first.
Following a tremendous public response to the unveiling of the Republican Party of Minnesota’s tracker uniforms at the Minnesota State Fair, Party Chairman Tony Sutton today announced that the Party will be holding a contest to allow Minnesotans a chance to design their very own tracker uniform for September 6, 2010, the Fair’s final day.
"As our great trackers made clear at the start of the Great Minnesota Together, Mark Dayton was named one of America’s worst senators by Time, and he is committed to raising taxes on hard-working Minnesotans. But there are other aspects of his failed 30-year political career which certainly merit their own t-shirt. Who can forget his bizarre and panicky decision to shut down his Senate office over a non-existent terrorist threat or his self grading of his own U.S. Senate accomplishments as an “F”? Due to popular demand, I’m proud to announce that the Party will be a holding a one-time only tracker uniform contest where Minnesotans can submit their own ideas of what they would see our highly capable trackers wear as uniforms,” said Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman Tony Sutton.
The Ed Morrissey Show continues its special Minnesota State Fair editions today, going two hours from 10-noon CT live from Dan Patch Avenue at the Great Minnesota Get-Together! We have another busy, busy day at the Patriot booth, starting off with Townhall’s new Political Director and a longtime friend of mine, Guy Benson, on hand to talk over the top stories of the day. Doug Wardlow drops by in the first hour to talk about his run for the state House in Minnesota, too.
In the second hour, Joel Demos will appear live to discuss his run for Congress in the 5th CD, challenging Keith Ellison in a David-and-Goliath battle in one of the most liberal districts in the US. We’ll talk about his creative work in campaign ads and the prospects of victory for the Republican Demos in a cycle that may help boost his chances. After, Dr. Victoria DeFrancesco Soto will talk about energy tax hikes and how they will disproportionately harm the Latino community, costing them more jobs in a tough recession.
In between, we’ll also take your calls at 651-289-4488. Be sure to join us either at the fair, on the web, or on the air! If you’re in the Twin Cities, the show will broadcast over AM 1280 The Patriot. If not, we’ll stream it live through Hot Air, with video and chat, on the permanent TEMS page.
What is it with modern day felons? Have they got balls or what?
There used to be a day when criminals were viewed as the “bad apples” of our society, a day when we locked these guys up so that the rest of us could live in peace. It was a time when spending 20 years behind bars was an unpleasant, life-altering experience, something that kept the average citizen on the straight and narrow. Even going to jail for a night was humiliating.
Now, celebrities like Lindsay Lohan think of jail as a “cute” PR move- and a way to make a fashion statement. What you wear to and from the prison is much more important than what you did wrong.
We now live in a world of gray, a world where right and wrong are just relative terms.
As richly as the Democrats deserve the butt-kicking that will come in two months, that doesn't necessarily mean that Republicans, or at least the old bull Republicans in Washington, deserve success. Rob Port makes the point well in this piece from the Washington Examiner:
During an election cycle in which its clear that the American electorate wants change, you would think that the Republicans would embrace change within their own party. At a time when Americans are sick and tired of the status quo in Washington DC, Miller’s victory in Alaska represents voters demanding that change with their votes.
What business do national Republicans have being hostile toward the candidate Republican voters in Alaska voted to represent them in the election? That there is apparent hostility speaks to the fact that Republicans still aren’t getting it.
Alaska’s GOP Senate nominee starts his quest to ask voters to “look into your heart”. Senate Democrats may start asking contributors to look into their wallets.
It had all the looks of an epic recount slugfest. Narrow margin of victory. A near blood fued between the waring factions. Lawyers from Washington. Instead, Alaska’s GOP primary battle royale ended with a whimper, not a bang:
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska conceded late Tuesday in her Republican primary race to Joe Miller, a lawyer from Fairbanks backed by Tea Party activists, Sarah Palin and other conservatives…
Ms. Murkowski’s concession followed the counting of about 16,000 additional ballots on Tuesday, which left Mr. Miller with a lead of about 1,469 votes out of about 103,000 cast. Several thousand more votes were to be counted on Friday but the trend suggested Ms. Murkowski would not gain enough ground to win.
For over a year, I have maintained a quasi-weekly podcast, mostly as a cathartic release for my own political and cultural frustration. As new and more effective opportunities for activism have presented themselves, it has become more difficult to divert the time and effort necessary to keep the show going. However, there was one final guest I wished to host, and am glad I did.
For your consideration, I present a candid interview with Brian Grogan, the Republican endorsed candidate for Minnesota House in District 43B. Discussing education, business, and local government aid among other issues, he credits voters with the maturity to understand the truth - that our public policy choices are hard and cannot be avoided if we hope to preserve our future.
I posted yesterday about my response from the NYC Department of Education/NYC Schools to a Freedom of Information request to verify Mark Dayton's employment with their school system. I was surprised when the department could not confirm any employment for Mark Dayton since he's talked for years about working as a teacher in the NYC Schools and has made this experience a prominent part of his personal history.
Some have questioned the ability and integrity of the processes of finding records in the NYC School System. I can only say that they have an entire department dedicated to fulfilling FOI requests and the letter I posted was from an attorney in their Department. Based on his response, it is fact that the NYC DOE has no records of Mark Dayton working anywhere in their system.
"Why do you always answer a question with a question?" asks the straight man. "Why not?" says his funny man. We laugh, but in real life, this technique of sidestepping debate and accountability is annoying.
I hear this frequently on radio and television, when hosts ask questions that callers and guests obviously would rather not answer, at least not directly. As we head toward Election Day in these oh so challenging times, it's time to call a halt to this. Some do at times, like Bill O'Reilly and Neil Cavuto. No wonder John Cusack wishes for the "Satanic death" of Fox News.
But even within what appears civil debate, all that is really happening is a volley of questions. Take for example, Patsy Green's response to a Minneapolis Star Tribune editorial urging that we voters test school aid requests i.e., referendums this fall. Ms. Green is the new Chair of the Association of Metropolitan School Districts. You may remember I endorsed her for re-election in 2009, certainly the doyen of the Robbinsdale (281) School Board and former Chair. I use her submission only to illustrate my point on debate, not school policy which can wait until my August Recess ends next week.
My dad taught high school - writing, English and especially Speech - for close to forty years. He taught in two districts - Rugby and Jamestown, ND. It's not hard to prove it; everyone in Jamestown either had dad, or their kids did, or their parents did. There were not a few two-generation families of students in that town.
Of course, you could ask him about it. He'll probably tell you all you wanna hear. He's kinda proud of the work he did. Justifiably so.
While Pauline Kael, the doyenne of American film critics, passed away years ago, her syndrome is alive and well here in Minnesota.
Yesterday's MPR/Humphrey Institute poll, which showed Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer in a dead heat, drew a chorus of "bad methodology!" from the local leftysphere; none of theirfriends, after all, voted for Emmer!
Someone help me out here…if Mark Dayton wants to raise taxes during a down economy where people have less money in pocket, from where does he think the additional tax money will come? The money fairy?
First of all, I for one do not have a trust fund to fall back on. My husband and I have both experienced layoffs which drained our cash reserves and the stock market crashes have decimated our long-term investments. Sure, we are trying to rebuild. However, the anticipated end of the Bush tax cuts at the end of the year, increases in health care costs (not including anything Obamacare-related), the third year of a pay freeze from my employer (i.e. no raises, no cost-of-living increases), property tax increases, etc. and we see our income decrease while our tax burden increases. Also, my husband has been working 6 days a week and extra hours when he can get them just to keep us at the income level we were at 5 years ago.
It's been in the works for more than four years, but when the environmental review came out last fall, the federal government blasted the report as inadequate.
Oberstar says he wants a thorough review, but it shouldn't take so long.
"The red tape, the slowdown, the lack of full attention by federal and state permitting agencies has dragged this process out much too long," said Oberstar.
Oberstar said the No. 1 issue people talk about in northeastern Minnesota is jobs. And the Polymet mine promises 400 jobs.
"I've heard some concerns, 'Be careful about our environment. We love this land, we don't want our waters to be adversely affected.' And I've assured people that corners will not be cut, there will be no exceptions made, but we have to do this in an expeditious manner," he said.
It's been 4 years since the permitting and inspection process started. Finally, it's got the attention of Rep. Oberstar? Why didn't he take interest before this? There's a simple answer for why it's finally getting his attention: Tom Emmer has made this a focal point of the campaign and Sen. Dayton is looking like he doesn't care about job creation.
Fiscally conservative legislators have spent years playing defense even when they had a majority. The truth is the left has the policy momentum on education, health care, the environment, energy, transportation---the list goes on. Why? Because left-wing think tanks are extremely well endowed and well staffed. They are ever-ready with an agenda hostile to our principles. As conservatives and libertarians, we often play the role of just amending the big government agenda and never get around to our own limited government agenda. These next two years have the potential to be different.
And this is where the Minnesota Free Market Institute comes in. We will be doing our part to educate Minnesota's leaders with a positive agenda of reform instead of just playing defense. Here is our fall focus:
Cottonwood, MN--When the state’s next Analysis of Municipal Liquor Store Operations annual report is released, at least one southwestern Minnesota city will no longer be on the list of losers.
After years of mounting operating losses, the City of Cottonwood recently got out of the liquor business for good. Even though it was a local monopoly in this small city, the Cottonwood liquor store ran up $20,000 in losses in 2009. Data from the State Auditor’s office shows the Cottonwood liquor store lost nearly $43,000 in 2008, one of the biggest total losses among municipal liquor stores in the entire state. The net loss of the liquor store represented nearly 3% of the city’s total expenditures in 2008, higher than the entire budget for the Park and Recreation Department or Community Center.
As an Iraq War Veteran, and in regards to President Obama's address tonight on the end of combat in Iraq, two things come to mind.
First, I appreciate the President mentioning former President George W Bush and his firm belief in victory. Of all the things he 'inherited' from the last president, President Obama should be happy to have inherited an Iraq on the road to success.
Second, the president severly understated his opposition to the war, and to the surge plan that made victory possible. Two years ago, I appeared in a commercial asking then Senator Obama to simply acknowledge the success of the surge--something he refused to do until fall of 2008, more than a year after the reults of the surge were evident.
The official line from the White House on the Glenn Beck “Restoring Honor” rally was What rally? That position is certainly understandable from a political perspective, and probably not bad from an overall perspective, either. The federal government shouldn’t take an inordinate amount of interest in lawful and peaceful political demonstrations in most cases, although certainly candidates for office should take heed of the electorate’s expressions of anger and dissatisfaction in this cycle especially.
However, it appears that one large portion of the federal government not only took an interest in another rally, but its Cabinet Secretary cajoled its staff to attend it. Arne Duncan sent an e-mail to more than 4000 Department of Education employees urging them to attend Al Sharpton’s protest rally on the same day as Beck’s:
While it's always problematic to look at polls before Labor Day, the latest from Minnesota Public Radio on the governor's race shows a dead heat between Tom Emmer and Mark Dayton. Both have the support of 34%, with Tom Horner checking in at 13% and 19% not offering an answer.
You can look at this a number of ways. Here are a few things I'd suggest:
Dayton and his minions (and I would include Matt Entenza in that collection) have spent millions of dollars demonizing Tom Emmer all summer long, with very little response from the Emmer camp. If the best they are able to do is get a tie, that doesn't bode well for Dayton.
As a self-appointed Minnesota "journalist" for this 2010 campaign season, I've been doing some research on DFL candidate for Governor, Mark Dayton. As I've said many times, I find it amazing that we know so little about this 63-year-old man who has been running for statewide office on-and-off for nearly thirty years.
Two of the campaign anecdotes that Mr. Daytons shares over-and-over again are:
1. That he worked in the New York Public School system post-college and
2. That he lived with a family on welfare while in New York
Look, when a Republican runs in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, he or she has to get creative. Joel Demos has gotten more than just creative — he’s downright courageous for hanging out in downtown Minneapolis and asking people to “click” his t-shirt in this ad promoting his new Facebook page. Unlike the chain-toting Everyman in the first commercial who pulls a monster truck down the road with a little help from his friends, Demos lets his friends do the work in this new webspot:
Former State Representative Laura Brod (New Prague) made the national Hot Air blog yesterday with an interesting post about how the left keeps women in a "little glass box" in the way they choose to endorse female candidates.
Hey, maybe they just need some reeducation! Either that, or cities and counties that already have stressed budgets and limited means of raising revenues are looking to escape the vastly escalating costs of providing health care. The Wall Street Journal reports that many of these facilities are providers of last resort — the exact places where millions of new Medicaid patients would have gone for care:
More than a fifth of the nation’s 5,000 hospitals are owned by governments and many are drowning in debt caused by rising health-care costs, a spike in uninsured patients, cuts in Medicare and Medicaid and payments on construction bonds sold in fatter times. Because most public hospitals tend to be solo operations, they don’t enjoy the economies of scale, or more generous insurance contracts, which bolster revenue at many larger nonprofit and for-profit systems.
In a previous blog post, I summarized the votes that make up Sen. Terri Bonoff's (DFL-Minnetonka) poor career rating on the Taxpayers League of Minnesota's legislative scorecards. In this post, I'll show why Rep. John Benson's (DFL-Minnetonka) career score is even lower than Bonoff's.
2007: Benson repeatedly voted in favor of what the Taxpayers League called a "bloated" transportation bill, then voted to override Gov. Pawlenty's veto of the bill, which would have raised taxes by billions of dollars, by up to $500 a year for a family of four. Benson also voted in favor of the Health and Human Services Finance bill, which would have reversed many welfare reforms and increased welfare spending in Minnesota (the bill was vetoed by Gov. Pawlenty). Rating: 25.
Reading through MPR's piece on the latest MPR/Humphrey Institute poll:
Both Dayton and Emmer are seeing the effects of voter backlashes as both President Obama and Gov. Tim Pawlenty appear to be hurting their party's chances. Of likely voters in Minnesota, 64 percent say the U.S. is on the wrong track, while 53 percent say the state is on the wrong track. Likely voters who disapprove of each executive's performance are decidely breaking for the opposing party.
Read literally, that means Minnesotans are about 20% more likely to disapprove of Obama's job than Pawlenty's (and it'd be interesting to find out how much of that 53% disapproves of Pawlenty or of the DFL-controlled Legislature).
Nearly 40 percent of likely voters said an endorsement by Pawlenty for Emmer would weaken their support for Emmer. A quarter said they would be more likely to support Emmer. Similarly, 44 percent of likely voters said an Obama endorsement for Dayton would mean they would be less likely to support Dayton. Thirty percent said it would increase their likelihood of support.
This is an interesting stat. After eight years in office, some form of Pawlenty fatigue is inevitable.
Obama's been in office a year and a half, though. It's interesting that the DFL booth hasabsolutely no reference to the sitting President at the State Fair.
While Democrats in Minnesota often rely on the lopsided support of women to win elections, a significant gender gap has not materialized in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Women favor Dayon and men favor Emmer by similar margins as in the education gap.
The education gap shows a slim lead for Emmer among college-educated likely voters, and a similar margin for Dayton among people with less than a college education.
Women not breaking overwhelmingly for the DFLer? Watch for major efforts to stanch that particular wound; if the DFL loses women in the long term, they're toast.
It'll be interesting to see what form the DFL's effort to solidify women takes...
Almost eighty years ago, the Great Plains – where I was born, a generation later – were pummeled by back-to-back catastrophes. The first one, the Great Depression, was manmade – a deflating credit bubble whose effects were exacerbated by government intervention in trade (the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which indirectly crippled farm exports) and the market (the entire New Deal, whose price controls had unintended consequences that rippled through ag markets for generations, as well as land management practices that exacerbated the later Dust Bowl) that kept the Depression going long after it would have healed itself after 1929.
The Ed Morrissey Show continues its special Minnesota State Fair editions today, going two hours from 10-noon CT live from Dan Patch Avenue at the Great Minnesota Get-Together! We have another busy, busy day at the Patriot booth, starting off with 
